Executive Summary
The heavy equipment market delivered significant price volatility over the past 30 days, with guarantee valuations shifting more than 5% across 47 manufacturer categories. The most dramatic move: Hyundai guarantee prices jumped $8,021 (29.5%) to $35,170, while listing values climbed 30.0% to $48,052. On the downside, Chevrolet guarantee values collapsed $3,443 (-25.2%) to $10,201, and Western Star guarantee prices cratered $18,804 (-38.0%) to $30,687.
High-volume categories showed mixed signals. Caterpillar guarantee prices dipped 3.2% ($42,085 to $40,725) on 1,063 current valuations, while John Deere guarantees rose 2.2% ($47,130 to $48,189) across 526 units. Komatsu guarantees fell 8.1% ($40,169 to $36,903) with valuation volume up 21% period-over-period.
Major Price Movers: Category Breakdown
Surging Categories
Hyundai leads all gainers with guarantee values up 29.5% ($27,149 to $35,170) and listings up 30.0% ($36,973 to $48,052). Valuation volume held steady at 35 units versus 33 prior period.
Liebherr guarantee prices climbed 25.2% ($58,309 to $72,991), with listings following at +24.2% ($78,329 to $97,251). Volume increased 50% to 21 valuations.
Kenworth posted the largest truck segment gain: guarantee values rose 11.4% ($40,592 to $45,239) and listings surged 15.3% ($55,634 to $64,159). Notably, valuation volume declined 13% (274 to 239), suggesting tightening supply.
Dynapac guarantee prices jumped 19.9% ($10,364 to $12,430), with listings up 27.0% ($13,073 to $16,606). Valuation volume more than doubled from 11 to 29 units.
Oshkosh guarantees gained 16.7% ($11,257 to $13,132), listings rose 10.3% ($16,994 to $18,737), and volume expanded 38% (60 to 83).
LeeBoy listings commanded premium attention, surging 19.9% ($30,579 to $36,679) on guarantee gains of 6.9% ($23,547 to $25,163). Volume more than doubled to 51 valuations.
Other notable gainers:
- Bell: Guarantee +17.6% to $103,203; Listing +28.1% to $147,715
- Stoughton: Guarantee +16.5% to $2,983; Listing +18.0% to $3,687
- Grove: Guarantee +15.9% to $16,888; Listing +15.8% to $24,919
- Volvo: Guarantee +8.9% to $30,630; Listing +12.2% to $40,497
- Kobelco: Guarantee +9.4% to $30,189; Listing +13.0% to $41,529
- Sterling: Guarantee +7.5% to $16,448; Listing +14.1% to $24,498
- Vermeer: Guarantee +12.5% to $67,506; Listing +8.8% to $88,207
Declining Categories
Western Star suffered the steepest collapse: guarantee values plummeted 38.0% ($49,491 to $30,687), listings fell 34.2% ($61,568 to $40,518). Volume rose 23% to 43 valuations, indicating distressed inventory hitting the market.
Isuzu guarantee prices dropped 37.8% ($17,973 to $11,176), with listings down 41.2% ($26,925 to $15,836). Volume increased 48% to 37 units.
Elgin experienced an anomalous 75.7% collapse in both guarantees ($21,379 to $5,190) and listings ($26,724 to $6,487), though on thin volume of 15 valuations.
Chevrolet guarantee values fell 25.2% ($13,644 to $10,201), listings dropped 19.2% ($17,874 to $14,436). Volume rose 9% to 106 units.
Link-Belt guarantee prices declined 22.5% ($79,516 to $61,611), listings fell 17.5% ($107,111 to $88,331). Volume increased 13% to 34 units.
GMC guarantee values plunged 21.0% ($8,250 to $6,520), listings fell 15.1% ($11,762 to $9,984). Volume rose 9% to 148 units.
Talbert guarantee prices dropped 20.8% ($33,749 to $26,720), listings fell 19.3% ($45,117 to $36,419). Volume declined 29% to 10 units.
Freightliner, the highest-volume declining truck brand with 348 valuations, saw guarantees fall 6.1% ($21,190 to $19,892) and listings drop 7.8% ($30,397 to $28,024).
Other significant decliners:
- Komatsu: Guarantee -8.1% to $36,903; Listing -5.5% to $50,112
- Bobcat: Guarantee -7.5% to $23,570; Listing -7.7% to $30,406
- Case: Guarantee -5.2% to $29,903; Listing -5.5% to $38,484
- Manitowoc: Guarantee -14.0% to $87,906; Listing -17.7% to $121,948
- Hamm: Guarantee -16.6% to $29,583; Listing -13.7% to $38,672
- Massey Ferguson: Guarantee -16.4% to $24,908; Listing -22.1% to $29,029
- Utility: Guarantee -15.2% to $7,386; Listing -16.3% to $9,944
- Great Dane: Guarantee -15.9% to $5,571; Listing -10.5% to $7,405
- Dorsey: Guarantee -17.6% to $19,558; Listing -16.8% to $27,981
Market Drivers: What Is Moving Prices
Supply concentration in construction equipment explains divergent paths. Komatsu, Case, and Bobcat all posted declines despite strong seasonal demand—suggesting oversupply in specific model years or regions. Komatsu valuation volume rose 21% (185 to 224) while prices fell, confirming inventory buildup.
Trucking sector bifurcation tells a clearer story. Kenworth and Volvo gained on tightening supply (volume down 13% and 19%, respectively), while Freightliner, Western Star, and Isuzu declined as fleet refresh cycles dumped used units. Freightliner volume rose 9% (320 to 348) during its 6.1% guarantee decline—classic oversupply pressure.
Seasonal paving demand lifted Dynapac, LeeBoy, and Hamm in opposite directions. Dynapac and LeeBoy surged on pre-season contractor buying; Hamm declined 16.6% despite the same seasonality, likely due to model mix shifts toward older units.
Agricultural equipment showed stability. John Deere gained modestly (+2.2% guarantee) on 20% volume growth, while Massey Ferguson collapsed 16.4% on thin 14-unit volume—idiosyncratic, not systemic.
Actionable Advice for Buyers
Immediate opportunities exist in depressed truck and trailer segments:
Browse Trucks: Freightliner listings at $28,024 (-7.8%) and International at $20,355 (-3.0%) offer fleet expansion value. Western Star at $40,518 (-34.2%) and Isuzu at $15,836 (-41.2%) present speculative recovery plays for patient buyers with refurbishment capacity.
Browse Trailers: Utility at $9,944 (-16.3%), Great Dane at $7,405 (-10.5%), and Dorsey at $27,981 (-16.8%) all trade at distressed levels. Talbert at $36,419 (-19.3%) offers heavy-haul value.
Browse Earth Moving: Komatsu at $50,112 (-5.5%) with rising volume provides negotiation leverage. Case at $38,484 (-5.5%) and Hitachi (listing +2.7% to $57,106 despite guarantee decline) offer mixed signals worth investigating.
Browse Excavators: Link-Belt at $88,331 (-17.5%) represents the steepest decline in high-reach equipment—verify hours and undercarriage condition before committing.
Avoid chasing Hyundai at $48,052 unless you have immediate job-site deployment. The 30.0% listing surge likely overcorrects.
Actionable Advice for Sellers
List immediately if you own:
- Kenworth or Volvo trucks: Supply contraction supports asking prices. Kenworth guarantees at $45,239 and Volvo at $30,630 have momentum.
- Dynapac or LeeBoy paving equipment: Seasonal demand peaks in Q2. Dynapac guarantees at $12,430 and LeeBoy listings at $36,679 have room to run.
- Liebherr or Bell cranes/lift equipment: Liebherr guarantees at $72,991 and Bell listings at $147,715 reflect institutional buyer appetite.
- Oshkosh specialty trucks: Guarantees at $13,132 with expanding volume (60 to 83) signal active market.
Delay listing if possible:
- Chevrolet or GMC light trucks: Guarantees at $10,201 and $6,520 may recover as consumer vehicle shortages persist.
- Western Star or Isuzu: At $30,687 and $11,176 guarantees, these are capitulation levels. Hold 60-90 days unless you need liquidity.
- Utility or Great Dane trailers: Seasonal freight demand typically strengthens in late Q2.
Price aggressively to move:
- Komatsu, Case, Bobcat: Rising volume with falling prices means competition. Price below guarantee to attract attention.
- Freightliner: 348 units in valuation pipeline creates buyer's market. List at or below $28,024 listing average.
30-Day Outlook
Expect continued bifurcation. Construction equipment enters peak season—excavator and dozer demand should support Caterpillar and Deere, though Komatsu's inventory overhang may pressure pricing through Q2. Trucking remains the wildcard: if freight rates stabilize, Kenworth and Volvo gains sustain; if spot markets soften, Freightliner and International declines deepen.
Monitor Hyundai and Liebherr for mean reversion—their 29.5% and 25.2% guarantee surges exceed fundamental support levels. Western Star and Isuzu bottom-fishing opportunities mature if volume peaks and retraces.
For real-time pricing on specific models, search current inventory by hours, year, and condition. The data refreshes daily as new units enter the marketplace.