Executive Summary
Active inventory holds steady at 2,237 items this week, with notable divergence in guarantee values across major manufacturers. Komatsu and Mack posted strong week-over-week gains of 5.6% and 12.2% respectively, while Kenworth and John Deere saw guarantee values drop 22.4% and 23.0%. Buyers targeting earth-moving equipment may find softer entry points in select brands, while sellers in trucking should note shifting confidence levels heading into year-end.
Category-by-Category Analysis
Trucking: Mixed Signals Across OEM Portfolio
The trucking segment represents substantial inventory depth, with semi trucks (182 items) and dump trucks (198 items) leading volume. Semi trucks currently average $29,658 listing price against a $21,819 guarantee—a spread of 35.9% that reflects ongoing depreciation pressure on highway units. Dump trucks command stronger fundamentals at $43,809 average listing and $32,417 guarantee, supported by steady infrastructure demand.
Within trucking OEMs, Caterpillar dominates valuation volume with 385 valuations and a $51,753 average guarantee against $66,434 average listing (0.68 confidence). Kenworth, despite ranking eighth in volume at 68 valuations, maintains comparable confidence at 0.68 with a $48,917 guarantee and $63,727 listing—though both figures dropped significantly from prior-week levels of $63,062 and $77,783.
Mack and Freightliner showed resilience this period. Mack's guarantee climbed to $32,056 (up 12.2% from $28,572) with 88 valuations, while Freightliner gained 18.1% to reach $23,990 guarantee against a $33,845 listing. Peterbilt held relatively flat at $31,841 guarantee (up 1.0%) with 96 valuations and 0.64 confidence.
The lower end of trucking—Ford, International, and GMC—continues to compress. Ford's guarantee fell to $12,068 (down 8.8%), International slipped to $12,954 (down 3.8%), and GMC hit $5,336 (down 5.6%) with the lowest confidence in the dataset at 0.50. These three OEMs collectively represent 187 valuations, indicating sustained market activity despite deteriorating values.
Earth-Moving: Bulldozers Lead Pricing, Excavators Offer Volume
Earth-moving categories command premium pricing relative to trucking, with bulldozers (103 items) posting a $78,421 average listing and $60,936 guarantee—the highest guarantee value across all categories. Wheel loaders follow at $54,044 listing and $42,471 guarantee across 111 items, while excavators (127 items) offer the deepest inventory at $51,172 listing and $38,257 guarantee.
The crawler excavator sub-segment, with 53 items, commands a $57,845 listing and $48,394 guarantee—significantly outperforming standard excavators on guarantee value alone. This 26.5% premium in guarantee terms suggests stronger buyer confidence in tracked configurations for rough-terrain applications.
Komatsu stands out in earth-moving OEM performance, with its guarantee rising 5.6% to $41,890 (from $39,678) on 49 valuations and 0.61 confidence. Caterpillar's earth-moving-adjacent valuations—captured across all categories—show a 2.5% guarantee increase to $51,753, reinforcing its pricing power. John Deere, however, saw its guarantee plummet 23.0% to $38,214 from $49,628, with valuation volume dropping from 225 to 207. This represents the steepest decline among top-tier earth-moving brands.
Case and Volvo also retreated. Case's guarantee fell 4.1% to $33,476 (from $34,894), while Volvo dropped 10.0% to $33,186 (from $36,885). Both OEMs carry 0.63 and 0.64 confidence respectively, suggesting market participants view these declines as potentially temporary rather than structural.
Compact Equipment: Bobcat and Kubota Diverge
Compact track loaders (47 items) and related categories show measured activity. Bobcat maintained relatively stable pricing with a $23,175 guarantee (down 2.3% from $23,719) across 40 valuations and the highest confidence in the dataset at 0.72. This confidence level—matched only by Kubota and Kenworth among comparable volumes—indicates strong market consensus on Bobcat residual values.
Kubota's guarantee fell more sharply, down 19.8% to $24,117 from $30,084, with valuation volume essentially flat at 33 versus 34 prior week. The $29,418 listing against this reduced guarantee narrows the listing-to-guarantee spread to 21.9%, down from 23.8% previously.
JLG, categorized under cranes-lifting, posted a $16,303 guarantee and $25,166 listing across 62 valuations with 0.57 confidence. This represents moderate confidence relative to earth-moving and trucking peers, consistent with aerial lift market seasonality heading into colder months.
Paving and Crushing-Screening: Niche Premium Categories
Pavers (40 items) command $34,487 listing and $27,524 guarantee—a category with limited but focused inventory. Screeners (38 items) post the highest absolute values in the dataset at $94,649 average listing and $73,736 guarantee, reflecting the specialized nature and lower depreciation curves of aggregate processing equipment.
Trailers and Support: Entry-Level Opportunities
Flatbed trailers (61 items) represent accessible inventory at $10,775 listing and $8,141 guarantee. Specialty trucks (66 items) and service trucks (47 items) round out support equipment at $21,599/$15,823 and $20,183/$14,377 respectively. These categories typically see faster inventory turnover and may appeal to buyers seeking immediate deployment without premium OEM exposure.
Notable Price Movements
| OEM | Guarantee Change | Prior Week | Current Week | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Deere | -23.0% | $49,628 | $38,214 | Sharp volume and value contraction; potential model-mix shift or regional demand softening |
| Kenworth | -22.4% | $63,062 | $48,917 | High-value inventory clearing; prior-week $77,783 listing average unsustainable |
| Kubota | -19.8% | $30,084 | $24,117 | Compact segment pressure; seasonal demand fade in agricultural-adjacent markets |
| Freightliner | +18.1% | $20,318 | $23,990 | Volume decline (104 to 88 valuations) with higher-quality unit mix lifting averages |
| Mack | +12.2% | $28,572 | $32,056 | Strong demand in vocational trucking; dump and mixer applications supporting residuals |
| Komatsu | +5.6% | $39,678 | $41,890 | Earth-moving resilience; crawler and excavator demand holding firm |
| Caterpillar | +2.5% | $50,491 | $51,753 | Steady premium maintenance across diversified category exposure |
| Peterbilt | +1.0% | $31,532 | $31,841 | Minimal movement; stable long-haul and vocational positioning |
What This Means for Buyers
Immediate opportunities exist in compressed guarantee categories. John Deere's 23.0% guarantee decline to $38,214 creates a $13,231 listing-to-guarantee spread—wider than Komatsu's $18,130 spread at higher absolute values. Buyers with inspection capacity and maintenance capabilities can extract value from this dislocation, particularly in earth-moving applications where Deere's dealer network supports parts availability.
Kenworth's correction to $48,917 guarantee (from $63,062) narrows the gap to comparable-spec Peterbilt and Mack units. With 0.68 confidence matching Caterpillar's level, this repricing may represent a window for highway tractor buyers before year-end tax considerations drive demand.
GMC at $5,336 guarantee and Ford at $12,068 offer functional fleet additions for non-critical applications. The 0.50 and 0.56 confidence levels, respectively, signal higher variance in actual transaction outcomes—buyers should budget for inspection and potential reconditioning.
Category-specific value propositions:
- Best guarantee-to-listing ratio: Flatbed trailers at 75.5% ($8,141/$10,775)
- Highest absolute guarantee: Screeners at $73,736
- Deepest inventory with premium pricing: Bulldozers at $60,936 guarantee across 103 items
- Volume-value balance: Excavators at 127 items, $38,257 guarantee—sufficient selection without overspecialization
What This Means for Sellers
Strongest seller positioning: Caterpillar (0.68 confidence, 385 valuations), Bobcat (0.72 confidence), and Kubota (0.68 confidence) demonstrate market consensus that supports asking prices. Caterpillar's 2.5% guarantee increase to $51,753 validates holding firm on listings near the $66,434 average.
Mack and Freightliner sellers benefit from momentum. Mack's 12.2% guarantee climb to $32,056 and Freightliner's 18.1% rise to $23,990 indicate tightening supply or improving spec mix—either scenario favors sellers with clean, late-model units.
Exercise caution on John Deere and Kenworth listings. The 23.0% and 22.4% guarantee declines suggest market resistance at prior price levels. Sellers with aging inventory should consider whether current listing expectations align with validated guarantee trends, or whether holding into Q1 2024 carries opportunity cost exceeding potential recovery.
International (0.52 confidence) and GMC (0.50 confidence) show the weakest market conviction. Sellers in these categories face compressed timelines—either move inventory aggressively or invest in differentiation (recent service, warranty transfer, attachments) to escape commodity pricing.
Outlook: Next 1-2 Weeks
Expect continued volatility in trucking guarantee values as year-end fleet refresh cycles conclude. Kenworth's prior-week spike to $63,062 proved unsustainable; the reversion to $48,917 likely represents sustainable demand rather than anomaly. Watch whether John Deere's 23.0% decline deepens or stabilizes—further erosion would signal broader agriculture and earth-moving softening beyond seasonal patterns.
Caterpillar's steady 2.5% gain and Komatsu's 5.6% rise suggest earth-moving fundamentals remain intact heading into winter work seasons. Infrastructure project continuity in key regions should support excavator, dozer, and wheel loader demand through Q4.
Inventory depth at 2,237 items provides adequate selection without oversupply. Buyers seeking specific configurations should monitor attachments (53 items, $11,876 guarantee) and support categories for complementary acquisitions that enhance primary unit productivity.
Confidence levels bear watching: the 0.50-0.72 range across major OEMs indicates healthy market efficiency without speculative excess. No category shows confidence compression that would signal imminent correction. Sellers with quality assets retain leverage; buyers with capital deployment timelines should act on identified dislocations before year-end tax incentives synchronize demand.