Executive Summary
The heavy equipment market delivered sharp price movements over the past 30 days, with guarantee values swinging from a 53.3% collapse to a 39.3% surge across major categories. Fleet managers and contractors tracked 9,847 total valuations this period — down from 11,239 in the prior period — signaling tighter inventory and more selective trading.
Critical movers:
- Downward pressure dominated trucking: International guarantee values fell $2,468 to $14,143 (-14.9%), Mack dropped $4,200 to $27,649 (-13.2%), and Freightliner declined $2,996 to $20,351 (-12.8%). GMC guarantee values cratered $1,458 to $7,053 (-17.1%).
- Construction and lift equipment surged: Volvo guarantee values jumped $7,055 to $34,038 (+26.1%), Grove crane guarantees soared $5,205 to $18,441 (+39.3%), and Liebherr guarantees climbed $17,793 to $64,736 (+37.9%).
- Extreme outliers: Western Star guarantee values halved from $62,679 to $32,410 (-48.3%), while Elgin street sweeper guarantees collapsed from $21,360 to $9,977 (-53.3%).
Category-by-Category Breakdown
Trucks and Transport: The Great Divide
Class 8 trucks faced severe markdowns. International trucks led declines with guarantee values falling to $14,143 from $16,611, while listing prices dropped to $19,786 from $22,975 — a 13.9% spread compression. Mack trucks followed with guarantees down to $27,649 from $31,849 and listings falling to $36,814 from $40,855. Freightliner guarantee values declined to $20,351 from $23,347, with listing prices at $29,077, down from $32,673.
The valuation sample shrank meaningfully: International fell from 411 to 296 units, Mack from 415 to 305, and Freightliner from 374 to 307. Fewer units trading through channels suggests either inventory hoarding or accelerated off-market disposal.
Kenworth bucked the trend. Guarantee values rose to $44,270 from $41,765 (+6.0%), with listing prices climbing to $61,230 from $56,293 (+8.8%). Kenworth's premium positioning held firm despite valuation volume dropping from 293 to 223 units.
Ford and Sterling showed divergent paths. Ford guarantees held nearly flat at $10,931 from $10,963 (-0.3%), while listing prices edged up to $16,228 from $15,973. Sterling guarantees rose to $16,053 from $15,272 (+5.1%), with listings surging to $23,824 from $20,981 (+13.6%) — the largest listing premium expansion in trucking.
Earthmoving and Construction Equipment
Caterpillar remained stable — guarantee values dipped slightly to $40,986 from $41,157 (-0.4%), while listing prices rose marginally to $53,588 from $53,348. With 904 current valuations against 1,095 prior period, CAT's market depth remains unmatched, but the 17.4% volume decline signals potential supply constraints ahead.
Komatsu guarantees fell to $37,374 from $40,842 (-8.5%), with listings down to $49,269 from $53,577 (-8.0%). Valuation volume compressed from 265 to 209 units. For buyers seeking yellow iron alternatives to CAT, Komatsu currently offers the widest guarantee-to-listing spread in earthmoving.
Volvo's explosive move demands attention. Guarantee values surged to $34,038 from $26,983 (+26.1%), with listings jumping to $44,688 from $34,844 (+28.3%). This 39.3% listing premium expansion occurred despite volume contracting from 291 to 200 units — classic supply squeeze dynamics. Browse Excavators
Case guarantees declined to $30,736 from $31,624 (-2.8%), with listings falling more sharply to $39,123 from $41,257 (-5.2%). The widening spread between guarantee and listing prices indicates dealer reluctance to match wholesale softness.
Hitachi guarantees eased to $41,025 from $41,612 (-1.4%), yet listing prices paradoxically rose to $56,388 from $53,991 (+4.4%). With only 45 current valuations against 76 prior, thin sample size may distort this reading.
Hyundai guarantees advanced to $33,290 from $29,719 (+12.0%), with listings surging to $47,556 from $39,896 (+19.2%). Volume dropped from 41 to 28 units — another supply-constrained rally.
Cranes and Lifts
Grove crane guarantees rocketed to $18,441 from $13,236 (+39.3%), with listings hitting $27,138 from $19,362 (+40.2%). Volume actually expanded from 36 to 39 units, confirming genuine demand acceleration rather than sample distortion. Browse Cranes
Link-Belt crane guarantees plunged to $51,352 from $71,423 (-28.1%), with listings collapsing to $74,412 from $95,645 (-22.2%). The $20,071 guarantee value destruction represents the largest absolute dollar decline in cranes, with volume shrinking from 36 to 29 units.
Manitowoc guarantees fell to $91,479 from $101,378 (-9.8%), with listings down to $126,258 from $146,430 (-13.8%). Valuation volume held nearly steady at 18 against 16 units, suggesting this reflects genuine price discovery rather than sample noise.
JLG aerial lift guarantees crashed to $19,325 from $24,629 (-21.5%), with listings falling to $28,039 from $33,127 (-15.4%). Volume expanded from 21 to 26 units — more supply meeting softer demand. Browse Aerial Lifts
Genie guarantees rose to $7,723 from $7,330 (+5.4%), with listings up to $10,479 from $9,978 (+5.0%). Modest but consistent gains with volume slipping from 44 to 38 units.
Compaction and Paving
Bomag guarantees climbed to $12,192 from $10,743 (+13.5%), with listings rising to $15,391 from $13,747 (+12.0%). Volume contracted from 45 to 33 units. Browse Compaction Equipment
Dynapac guarantees fell to $11,227 from $12,691 (-11.5%), with listings down to $14,585 from $16,223 (-10.1%). Volume halved from 20 to 13 units.
Leeboy guarantees declined to $23,852 from $25,953 (-8.1%), though listings paradoxically rose to $33,983 from $33,531 (+1.3%). Thin volume — 43 current against 19 prior — limits confidence in this signal.
Trailers and Transport Equipment
Trail King guarantees held at $21,364 from $21,196 (+0.8%), but listings surged to $30,101 from $27,281 (+10.3%). Volume expanded from 29 to 45 units — the rare category showing both price and volume growth.
Utility guarantees fell to $7,554 from $8,505 (-11.2%), with listings down to $10,634 from $11,331 (-6.2%). Volume collapsed from 65 to 39 units.
Wabash National guarantees declined to $3,416 from $3,713 (-8.0%), with listings at $4,184, down from $4,526 (-7.6%). Volume held flat at 37 units — pure price compression.
Fruehauf guarantees cratered to $4,354 from $7,812 (-44.3%), with listings collapsing to $6,330 from $9,436 (-32.9%). Vintage trailer values appear in freefall.
Utility and Specialty Equipment
Vermeer guarantees surged to $60,343 from $48,559 (+24.3%), with listings hitting $79,718 from $64,907 (+22.8%). Volume held nearly steady at 24 against 26 units — authentic demand strength in horizontal directional drilling and trenching equipment.
Altec utility equipment guarantees plunged to $13,815 from $17,786 (-22.3%), with listings down to $18,373 from $24,425 (-24.8%). Volume contracted from 30 to 20 units. Bucket truck and digger derrick markets softened abruptly.
Elgin street sweeper guarantees collapsed to $9,977 from $21,360 (-53.3%), with listings at $12,471, down from $26,700 (-53.3%). The matched percentage decline suggests forced liquidation rather than orderly repricing.
What's Driving These Movements
Supply contraction amplifies volatility. Total valuations fell 12.4% period-over-period across all categories. Fewer units circulating through wholesale channels creates sharper price swings — both up and down — as thin markets gap on modest order flow changes.
Seasonal construction acceleration supports earthmoving and lift equipment. Volvo, Grove, and Hyundai gains align with Q2 project ramp-ups in non-residential construction. Crane and excavator demand typically peaks May-July; current pricing reflects fleet managers securing iron before peak season.
Trucking recession deepens. The synchronized collapse across International, Mack, Freightliner, and GMC points to freight rate weakness persisting into Q2. Spot market trucking economics remain challenging, pressuring owner-operators and small fleets to liquidate. Kenworth's resilience suggests premium sleeper cab markets retain strength — possibly long-haul replacement demand from larger carriers with contract rate protection.
Age and specification effects matter. Western Star's 48.3% guarantee collapse and Fruehauf's 44.3% drop likely reflect specific model year concentrations hitting depreciation cliffs. Buyers should verify year, hours, and specification before assuming broad brand weakness.
Actionable Advice for Buyers
Immediate opportunities:
- International trucks at $14,143 guarantees — deepest Class 8 discount with 296 units available. Replacement cost economics favor buying over building for regional haul fleets.
- Mack at $27,649 guarantees — 13.2% markdown with proven vocational durability. Ideal for dump and mixer applications where premium powertrains matter less.
- JLG lifts at $19,325 guarantees — 21.5% decline with expanding volume (26 units, up from 21). Aerial fleet expansion opportunity before Q3 construction peak.
- Link-Belt cranes at $51,352 guarantees — $20,071 absolute discount from prior period. Verify boom hours and recent inspection status; distress selling creates value for qualified buyers.
- Altec utility equipment at $13,815 guarantees — 22.3% markdown for bucket trucks and digger derricks. Municipal and co-op fleet buyers should move before Q3 storm response season.
Avoid chasing: Volvo at $34,038 and Grove at $18,441 guarantees have run too far, too fast. Wait for volume recovery or Q3 seasonal normalization.
Actionable Advice for Sellers
List now if you own:
- Kenworth trucks — $44,270 guarantees, $61,230 listings. Premium market strength won't persist if freight rates don't recover by Q3.
- Volvo excavators — $34,038 guarantees, $44,688 listings. Strike while seasonality and supply scarcity align.
- Grove cranes — $18,441 guarantees, $27,138 listings. Rare 39.3% guarantee surge with actual volume support.
- Vermeer equipment — $60,343 guarantees, $79,718 listings. Trenching and HDD markets show authentic demand strength.
- Sterling trucks — $16,053 guarantees, $23,824 listings. Listing premiums expanded 13.6%; capture before medium-duty demand moderates.
Hold or lease instead of selling:
- Caterpillar equipment — minimal price movement with contracting volume. CAT liquidity remains superior; don't discount into stable demand.
- Ford trucks — flat guarantees with rising listings suggest patient sellers get paid. Volume decline (-23.5%) supports waiting.
- Bobcat equipment — modest 3.0% guarantee decline with volume expanding (101 vs. 91 units). Rental fleet demand supports current levels.
30-Day Outlook
Expect continued bifurcation. Construction and infrastructure equipment — particularly cranes, excavators, and compaction — likely maintains strength through June as project backlogs clear. Trucking equipment faces further pressure unless freight rates recover meaningfully; International at $14,143 and Mack at $27,649 may represent intermediate bottoms, but confirmation requires volume stabilization.
The 12.4% overall valuation volume decline matters more than any single price point. Thinner markets produce sharper, less predictable moves. Buyers should pre-qualify financing and move decisively on verified units. Sellers should list premium brands immediately while seasonal tailwinds persist, and consider leasing or rental conversions for depreciated trucking assets rather than accepting distressed guarantee levels.
Watch Kenworth and Volvo for early reversal signals — both have run hard on supply scarcity. Any volume recovery in these categories without demand matching will compress premiums rapidly.
Data covers 30-day guarantee and listing price movements across 9,847 valuations. All dollar amounts and percentages reflect actual market transactions. For real-time pricing on specific units, browse current inventory or request a valuation for your fleet.