Executive Summary

The heavy equipment market posted significant price movements across 40+ manufacturer categories in the last 30 days. Grove cranes led all gainers with listing prices jumping 40.6% ($18,719 to $26,321), while Autocar guarantee values collapsed 52.8% ($13,074 to $6,167). The data reveals a bifurcated market: aerial lift and select earthmoving brands command premium pricing, while legacy truck manufacturers face sustained downward pressure.

Key dollar moves to watch:

Volvo: Guarantee up $7,076 (+26.5%), Listing up $10,033 (+29.2%)
Freightliner: Guarantee down $3,454 (-14.7%), Listing down $4,415 (-13.4%)
Terex: Guarantee down $9,696 (-27.6%), Listing down $11,019 (-24.4%)
Western Star: Guarantee down $29,675 (-48.1%), Listing down $35,089 (-46.0%)

Major Gainers: Where Prices Are Rising

Grove: +40.6% Listing, +40.0% Guarantee

Grove posted the most dramatic increase in the dataset. Guarantee values rose from $12,778 to $17,887; listing prices climbed from $18,719 to $26,321. Valuation volume held relatively steady at 41 units (up from 32), suggesting genuine demand compression rather than thin-market distortion. For fleet managers needing aerial reach equipment, this signals strong resale support but tougher acquisition costs.

Volvo: +29.2% Listing, +26.5% Guarantee

Volvo guarantee values surged $7,076 to $33,807, with listings reaching $44,427. The 203 current-period valuations (down from 285) indicate tighter supply may drive this move—fewer units trading hands at higher clearing prices. Browse Volvo Equipment

Chevrolet: +25.6% Guarantee, +21.6% Listing

Light/medium duty trucks showed unexpected strength. Chevrolet guarantee values rose from $10,674 to $13,402; listings reached $17,821. Volume declined to 102 valuations (from 117), reinforcing the supply-contraction narrative.

Liebherr: +23.8% Guarantee, +21.2% Listing

Premium German engineering commanded premium pricing. Guarantee values hit $68,534 (up from $55,343); listings reached $90,507. At only 17 valuations, this remains a thin market—buyers should verify comparable sales before pricing decisions.

Metso: +29.4% Guarantee, +20.0% Listing

Aggregate processing equipment showed institutional demand. Guarantee values climbed from $96,682 to $125,143. The 13 valuations (down from 17) suggest large-scale mining/quarry capital deployment continues despite broader economic uncertainty.

Kenworth: +11.6% Listing, +8.7% Guarantee

Kenworth guarantee values rose $3,611 to $45,113; listings hit $62,621. This outlier performance among Class 8 trucks—while Freightliner, International, and Mack all declined—reflects Kenworth's sleeper cab and vocational spec strength in current freight markets.

Peterbilt: +10.3% Listing, +9.4% Guarantee

Peterbilt guarantee values climbed to $36,326 (from $33,216); listings reached $49,876. Volume held flat at 369-370 valuations, confirming broad market participation in this price reset.

Other Notable Gainers

Massey Ferguson: +31.8% guarantee ($23,301 to $30,720), +28.5% listing ($28,920 to $37,153)
Bell: +18.9% guarantee ($88,560 to $105,262), +33.5% listing ($110,055 to $146,955)
Vermeer: +16.2% guarantee ($48,716 to $56,612), +14.8% listing ($65,182 to $74,829)
Hyundai: +9.4% guarantee ($29,076 to $31,808), +15.7% listing ($39,160 to $45,323)
Kubota: +8.6% guarantee ($25,570 to $27,761), volume steady at 62 valuations
Isuzu: +14.3% guarantee ($14,480 to $16,547), +13.3% listing ($21,266 to $24,101)
Stoughton: +10.0% guarantee ($2,587 to $2,845), +9.6% listing ($3,172 to $3,476)
Skyjack: +7.8% guarantee ($5,071 to $5,465), +13.1% listing ($7,180 to $8,121)

Major Decliners: Where Values Are Falling

Autocar: -52.8% Guarantee, -47.4% Listing

Autocar guarantee values cratered from $13,074 to $6,167; listings fell to $9,308 (from $17,700). Volume dropped to 10 valuations (from 14). This severe compression likely reflects model-year concentration in the sample—buyers should inspect unit-specific condition and hours before assuming broad brand weakness.

Fruehauf: -50.3% Guarantee, -41.7% Listing

Vintage trailer values collapsed. Guarantee values fell from $7,867 to $3,907; listings dropped to $5,681 (from $9,742). At 37 valuations (flat from 36), this appears structural for older dry van/reefer equipment facing regulatory and maintenance cost pressures.

Western Star: -48.1% Guarantee, -46.0% Listing

Premium vocational truck values halved. Guarantee values plummeted from $61,683 to $32,008; listings fell to $41,247 (from $76,336). Volume declined to 37 (from 41). This contradicts Kenworth's strength—likely a model-mix issue with heavy-haul spec units exiting the market at distressed levels.

Elgin: -49.7% Guarantee, -49.7% Listing

Street sweeper guarantee values fell from $19,853 to $9,977; listings dropped to $12,472 (from $24,816). Municipal budget cycles and seasonal demand explain this collapse—sweepers face peak pricing in spring, not late fall/winter trading periods.

Terex: -27.6% Guarantee, -24.4% Listing

Terex guarantee values dropped $9,696 to $25,451; listings fell to $34,146 (from $45,165). Notably, volume rose to 104 valuations (from 79), indicating forced selling or fleet rotation into newer models. Browse Terex Equipment

Link-Belt: -30.3% Guarantee, -25.9% Listing

Crane guarantee values fell from $72,308 to $50,407; listings dropped to $72,317 (from $97,532). Volume declined to 31 (from 34). This aligns with broader crawler/hydraulic crane softness as construction starts moderate in key markets.

Hamm: -26.9% Guarantee, -25.1% Listing

Compaction equipment guarantee values fell from $39,742 to $29,038; listings dropped to $37,302 (from $49,778). Volume rose to 13 (from 10)—similar Terex pattern of more units chasing fewer buyers.

Clark: -27.3% Guarantee, -26.3% Listing

Material handling guarantee values fell from $3,402 to $2,472; listings dropped to $3,219 (from $4,365). Volume rose to 14 (from 10)—aging forklift fleet replacement cycles may pressure this segment through Q1.

Other Significant Decliners

GMC: -17.3% guarantee ($8,343 to $6,902), -11.8% listing ($11,820 to $10,421)
Ram: -20.6% guarantee ($22,387 to $17,767), -18.1% listing ($31,923 to $26,139)
Altec: -20.7% guarantee ($17,514 to $13,887), -21.9% listing ($23,948 to $18,703)
Extec: -16.8% guarantee ($42,943 to $35,722), -16.9% listing ($60,365 to $50,151)
International: -13.4% guarantee ($16,445 to $14,249), -12.7% listing ($22,709 to $19,820)
Freightliner: -14.7% guarantee ($23,571 to $20,117), -13.4% listing ($33,050 to $28,635)
Rogers: -13.6% guarantee ($19,692 to $17,006), -15.8% listing ($26,356 to $22,185)
Gradall: -14.6% guarantee ($9,224 to $7,881), -15.4% listing ($12,577 to $10,634)
Wabash National: -11.3% guarantee ($3,741 to $3,317), -10.9% listing ($4,560 to $4,063)
Kaufman: -11.1% guarantee ($12,738 to $11,324), -5.9% listing ($16,565 to $15,585)
JLG: -11.4% guarantee ($22,566 to $20,000), -4.8% listing ($30,516 to $29,036)
Dorsey: -14.8% guarantee ($23,528 to $20,045), -11.7% listing ($33,032 to $29,173)
Great Dane: -12.6% guarantee ($6,675 to $5,833), -8.6% listing ($8,479 to $7,748)
Wacker Neuson: -9.1% guarantee ($18,345 to $16,678), -6.2% listing ($22,949 to $21,516)
Dynapac: -8.2% guarantee ($13,182 to $12,104), -6.9% listing ($16,877 to $15,708)
White/GMC: -7.8% guarantee ($7,244 to $6,677), -4.5% listing ($9,954 to $9,507)
Leeboy: -7.2% guarantee ($25,158 to $23,359), +2.0% listing ($32,507 to $33,145)
Hitachi: -6.3% guarantee ($44,007 to $41,225), +1.3% listing ($57,083 to $57,849)
JCB: -5.8% guarantee ($21,478 to $20,229), -4.4% listing ($29,282 to $28,000)
Komatsu: -8.3% guarantee ($40,918 to $37,514), -7.1% listing ($53,622 to $49,792)
Mack: -9.3% guarantee ($31,060 to $28,167), -6.1% listing ($40,000 to $37,561)
Manitowoc: -5.4% guarantee ($95,701 to $90,528), -8.1% listing ($138,261 to $127,100)
Utility: -6.2% guarantee ($8,350 to $7,830), -2.0% listing ($11,140 to $10,915)

Market Drivers: What Is Moving Prices

Seasonal Compression

Late Q4 trading patterns explain several anomalies. Municipal equipment (Elgin sweepers, refuse trucks) faces cyclical demand weakness. Conversely, aerial lifts (Grove, JLG, Genie, Skyjack) often see year-end rental fleet rotation, creating price volatility as units change ownership channels.

Supply-Demand Imbalances in Trucks

Class 8 truck pricing shows stark divergence. Kenworth (+8.7% guarantee) and Peterbilt (+9.4%) gained while Freightliner (-14.7%), International (-13.4%), and Mack (-9.3%) declined. This likely reflects sleeper cab and regional haul spec availability—Kenworth/Peterbilt dominate configurations currently in demand, while day cab and dry van specs from Freightliner/International face oversupply as spot freight rates normalize from 2022 peaks.

Volume Signals Matter

Categories with rising valuations alongside declining volume (Volvo: 203 vs. 285; Chevrolet: 102 vs. 117) suggest genuine scarcity. Categories with rising volume and falling prices (Terex: 104 vs. 79; Hamm: 13 vs. 10) indicate oversupply or distressed fleet sales. Buyers should weight volume trends heavily in negotiation strategy.

Earthmoving Stability

Caterpillar (+0.6% guarantee, +2.1% listing) and John Deere (+1.0% guarantee, +2.6% listing) posted modest gains with substantial volume (969 and 478 valuations respectively). This baseline stability—amid volatility elsewhere—reflects consistent infrastructure demand and disciplined fleet replacement cycles. Browse Dozers

Actionable Advice for Buyers

Immediate Opportunities

Truck buyers face a favorable window for select brands:

Freightliner: Guarantee values at $20,117 (down from $23,571) represent $3,454 in immediate savings. Volume remains robust at 317-371 valuations—broad selection exists.
International: At $14,249 guarantee (down from $16,445), vocational specs offer value. Verify engine hours and aftertreatment history.
Mack: $28,167 guarantee (down from $31,060) with 328 current valuations provides negotiating leverage.
Western Star: Extreme compression to $32,008 guarantee (from $61,683) demands caution—verify model year, spec, and condition. Not all units at this price represent equal value.
GMC light duty: $6,902 guarantee (down from $8,343) suits cost-conscious utility fleets.

Aerial lift buyers should act quickly on select brands:

Terex: Despite brand-wide decline, volume rose to 104 units. For non-crane categories (telehandlers, boom lifts), this creates buyer leverage.
JLG: Guarantee at $20,000 (down from $22,566) with volume rising to 28 (from 21) signals potential inventory accumulation.

Compaction and paving buyers:

Hamm: $29,038 guarantee (down from $39,742) with rising volume suits seasonal pre-positioning ahead of spring construction.
Bomag: Modest -3.8% decline to $11,158 guarantee offers stable entry point.

Caution Zones

Avoid chasing Volvo and Grove at current premiums unless project timelines demand immediate delivery. The +29.2% and +40.6% listing surges may correct as spring inventory builds. Liebherr at $68,534 guarantee (up from $55,343) with only 17 valuations lacks comparable sale support—insist on FLV verification.

Actionable Advice for Sellers

List Now: Peak Pricing Windows

Aerial lift fleet owners should accelerate listings:

Grove: $26,321 listing (up from $18,719) represents peak 30-day pricing. Volume at 41 units confirms tradable market depth.
Genie: $10,419 listing (up from $9,978) with 41 valuations offers liquid exit.
Skyjack: $8,121 listing (up from $7,180) with steady 13-valuation volume suits regional fleet dispersal.

Earthmoving and aggregate equipment:

Metso: $165,298 listing (up from $137,740) with institutional buyer demand—list before Q1 capital budget exhaustion.
Vermeer: $74,829 listing (up from $65,182) with 26 valuations (up from 25) shows sustained trencher/horizontal directional drill demand.
Massey Ferguson: $37,153 listing (up from $28,920) in agricultural segment—list before spring planting season inventory builds.

Truck sellers face mixed signals:

Kenworth and Peterbilt owners should list immediately to capture +11.6% and +10.3% listing premiums. Volume stability confirms buyer participation.
Chevrolet light/medium duty: $17,821 listing (up from $14,651) with declining volume (102 vs. 117) suggests narrowing window—list before comparable supply returns.

Hold or Delay

Freightliner, International, Mack, and Freightliner sellers face headwinds. If units are not revenue-critical, consider Q2 listing when freight rate visibility improves and tax-season buyer capital deploys. Komatsu sellers (-8.3% guarantee) should similarly defer if cash flow permits—baseline earthmoving demand should stabilize pricing.

30-Day Outlook

January-February typically brings inventory rebuilding after year-end tax-driven sales. Expect:

Aerial lift normalization: Grove's 40.6% surge likely peaks; JLG, Genie, and Skyjack may see 5-10% correction as rental fleets complete rotation.
Truck bifurcation persistence: Kenworth/Peterbilt strength vs. Freightliner/International weakness continues until freight market data clarifies H1 2024 direction.
Earthmoving stability: Caterpillar and John Deere's modest gains with high volume suggest this segment anchors overall market sentiment.
Municipal equipment recovery: Elgin, Autocar, and utility truck weakness should reverse by March as municipal budgets activate.

Fleet managers should monitor volume trends more than price trends in thin markets (Liebherr at 17 valuations, Metso at 13, Bell at 11). Single large transactions distort percentages. In high-volume categories (Caterpillar 969, John Deere 478, Peterbilt 369), price moves carry predictive weight for broader market direction.

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Heavy Equipment Price Alert: Grove Surges 40.6% as Truck Brands Tumble