Executive Summary
The heavy equipment market delivered extreme price divergence over the past 30 days, with guarantee values and listing prices moving in opposite directions across major categories. Grove posted the most dramatic gain—guarantee values rocketed from $31,478 to $86,390 (+174.4%), while listing prices climbed from $43,859 to $109,112 (+148.8%). On the distressed side, New Holland guarantee values collapsed from $31,998 to $19,817 (-38.1%), with listing prices following down from $41,443 to $25,732 (-37.9%).
Twenty-eight categories recorded guarantee or listing price swings exceeding 5%. The split is stark: aerial and lifting equipment commanded premiums, while agricultural and select vocational trucks traded at discounts. Total valuations declined from 6,847 units to 5,417 units, indicating tighter supply across most categories.
Category-by-Category Breakdown
Aerial & Lifting Equipment: Premiums Surge
Grove guarantee values exploded 174.4% ($31,478 to $86,390) and listings rose 148.8% ($43,859 to $109,112), though valuations compressed from 48 to 35 units. JLG guarantee values doubled from $18,185 to $36,408 (+100.2%) with listings up 51.5% ($27,162 to $41,161)—but available units cratered from 90 to 37. Skyjack guarantee values jumped 44.3% ($5,975 to $8,619) and listings gained 65.4% ($9,365 to $15,494).
The pattern repeats across the segment. Browse Aerial Lifts to capture remaining inventory before valuations tighten further.
Earthmoving & Construction: Mixed Signals
Hitachi guarantee values surged 39.6% ($35,052 to $48,926) and listings climbed 77.6% ($49,338 to $87,646). Vermeer guarantee values gained 45.7% ($37,142 to $54,110) with listings up 90.7% ($45,777 to $87,290). BOMAG guarantee values rose 48.3% ($12,211 to $18,107) and listings doubled to $31,444 (+100.2%).
Conversely, Komatsu held nearly flat at +0.4% guarantee ($39,038 to $39,184) despite listings rising 19.1% ($55,711 to $66,349). Kobelco guarantee values fell 14.0% ($33,295 to $28,622) with listings down 11.7% ($46,494 to $41,071). Kubota guarantee values dropped 14.9% ($26,515 to $22,568) and listings fell 12.3% ($33,661 to $29,508).
Browse Excavators for value in softening Japanese brands.
Trucks & Trailers: Severe Bifurcation
Class 8 and vocational trucks split between soaring premiums and distressed discounts.
Rising: Volvo guarantee values gained 6.0% ($33,147 to $35,146) but listings surged 40.0% ($43,670 to $61,143). Peterbilt guarantee values rose 12.1% ($31,892 to $35,735) with listings up 23.1% ($46,094 to $56,735). Freightliner guarantee values dipped 5.8% ($20,482 to $19,289) yet listings jumped 19.9% ($29,540 to $35,430).
Falling: International guarantee values plummeted 18.4% ($15,753 to $12,852), though listings paradoxically rose 12.6% ($21,974 to $24,733). Ford guarantee values crashed 20.4% ($13,137 to $10,456) with listings up 14.8% ($19,247 to $22,091). Mack guarantee values fell 6.7% ($31,055 to $28,966) with listings nearly flat at -1.1% ($40,854 to $40,396).
Browse Trucks to capitalize on International and Ford weakness.
Agriculture: Broad Weakness
John Deere guarantee values fell 14.1% ($46,279 to $39,762) with listings down 4.1% ($60,285 to $57,836), as valuations compressed from 841 to 734 units. New Holland guarantee values collapsed 38.1% ($31,998 to $19,817) with listings down 37.9% ($41,443 to $25,732). Massey Ferguson guarantee values plunged 39.4% ($30,629 to $18,551) with listings falling 31.0% ($37,863 to $26,117).
Browse Agricultural Equipment for the deepest discounts in 18 months.
Specialized & Niche Categories
Link-Belt guarantee values soared 48.6% ($87,716 to $130,367) with listings up 72.0% ($117,365 to $201,824), though valuations thinned from 62 to 40 units. Liebherr guarantee values gained 56.2% ($50,402 to $78,737) with listings up 91.0% ($69,538 to $132,815), but available units collapsed from 43 to 20.
Hino guarantee values tripled from $10,455 to $24,399 (+133.4%) with listings surging 231.9% ($14,120 to $46,859). Takeuchi guarantee values more than doubled from $24,152 to $53,940 (+123.3%).
On the distressed side, Morbark guarantee values fell 36.8% ($320,703 to $202,752) with listings down 39.2% ($426,514 to $259,515). Manitowoc guarantee values dropped 35.4% ($74,198 to $47,953) with listings falling 25.6% ($103,601 to $77,104).
What Is Driving These Changes
Three forces explain the divergence:
Supply contraction in lifting equipment. Grove, JLG, and Skyjack valuations dropped 27%, 59%, and 42% respectively. Fewer units reaching the secondary market concentrated demand on available inventory, pushing guarantee and listing premiums to extreme levels.
Agricultural cycle pressure. John Deere, New Holland, and Massey Ferguson weakness aligns with softening farm income expectations and elevated new equipment inventory. Sellers are accepting lower guarantees to move units before depreciation accelerates.
Truck market rebalancing. The split between rising listings and falling guarantees for International, Ford, and Freightliner suggests dealers are asking premiums while wholesale buyers resist—creating a bid-ask spread that favors patient buyers with cash.
Actionable Advice for Buyers
Immediate opportunities:
- Agricultural equipment: John Deere at $39,762 guarantee (-14.1%), New Holland at $19,817 (-38.1%), and Massey Ferguson at $18,551 (-39.4%) represent the steepest discounts in the dataset. Browse Agricultural Equipment
- Vocational trucks: International at $12,852 guarantee (-18.4%) and Ford at $10,456 (-20.4%) offer entry points for fleet expansion. Browse Trucks
- Japanese earthmoving: Kobelco at $28,622 guarantee (-14.0%) and Kubota at $22,568 (-14.9%) provide value for utility contractors.
Avoid chasing: Grove, JLG, and Skyjack premiums reflect supply scarcity, not fundamental demand growth. Guarantee values at $86,390, $36,408, and $8,619 carry reversal risk if winter listings increase.
Actionable Advice for Sellers
List immediately:
- Aerial equipment: If you hold Grove, JLG, or Skyjack, current guarantee premiums of $86,390, $36,408, and $8,619 represent 2-3 year highs. Valuation counts are collapsing—lock in before supply normalizes. Sell Your Equipment
- Premium earthmoving: Hitachi ($48,926 guarantee, +39.6%), Vermeer ($54,110, +45.7%), and BOMAG ($18,107, +48.3%) are commanding exceptional premiums.
- European trucks: Volvo ($35,146, +6.0%) and Peterbilt ($35,735, +12.1%) guarantee values are firm with listing premiums expanding.
Hold or accept discount:
- Agricultural and lower-tier vocational equipment faces oversupply. If you do not need liquidity, Q1 typically brings spring demand recovery. If you need cash, price aggressively—guarantees are falling faster than listings.
30-Day Outlook
The aerial and lifting equipment premium looks unsustainable without sustained supply constraint. Expect Grove, JLG, and Skyjack guarantee values to stabilize or mean-revert 10-15% if winter fleet auctions accelerate.
Agricultural equipment likely bottoms in 30-45 days as tax-planning purchases emerge. Buyers should complete transactions by mid-December to capture New Holland and Massey Ferguson discounts.
Truck market bifurcation persists. International and Ford guarantee values may fall another 5-8% before finding support. Volvo and Peterbilt premiums hold unless freight indices deteriorate sharply.
Earthmoving remains the most balanced segment—Komatsu flatness, Hitachi strength, and Kobelco weakness create selective value. Browse All Equipment to filter by your target category and price range.