Executive Summary
The heavy equipment market posted significant price volatility over the past 30 days, with guarantee values swinging from a 46.5% collapse in Fruehauf trailers to a 28.5% surge in Liebherr equipment. Of 53 tracked manufacturers, 24 posted guarantee price movements exceeding 5%, indicating a bifurcated market where selective buying and selling opportunities have emerged.
Key movers by guarantee value:
| Direction | Brand | Guarantee Change | Dollar Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surge | Liebherr | +28.5% | $58,309 → $74,936 |
| Surge | Volvo | +24.0% | $27,249 → $33,784 |
| Surge | LeeBoy | +18.5% | $22,082 → $26,169 |
| Surge | Kubota | +16.1% | $24,430 → $28,364 |
| Collapse | Fruehauf | -46.5% | $7,785 → $4,167 |
| Collapse | Western Star | -42.8% | $52,585 → $30,090 |
| Collapse | Autocar | -37.7% | $11,586 → $7,214 |
| Collapse | Link-Belt | -33.7% | $79,515 → $52,713 |
Listing values generally tracked guarantee movements but with wider spreads. LeeBoy listings jumped 32.0% ($28,673 → $37,836), while Western Star listings fell 39.0% ($64,931 → $39,622). Valuation volume increased across most brands, suggesting more market participants are pricing equipment rather than fewer transactions driving distortion.
Category-by-Category Breakdown
Earth-Moving Equipment
Volvo posted the most dramatic gain in the earth-moving segment. Guarantee values rose 24.0% ($27,249 → $33,784) and listings surged 26.8% ($34,959 → $44,331) across 229 current-period valuations, down from 265 prior-period units. The tighter supply—fewer units hitting the market—likely amplified price pressure.
Hyundai matched this momentum with guarantee values up 25.7% ($28,360 → $35,656) and listings up 30.9% ($37,718 → $49,389) on nearly flat volume (35 vs. 34 valuations). Browse Excavators
Komatsu moved counter to the segment, with guarantee values down 2.6% ($38,763 → $37,767) and listings slipping 0.6% ($51,001 → $50,682). Volume expanded from 197 to 261 valuations, suggesting supply absorption without price support.
Hitachi guarantee values dipped 0.7% ($42,199 → $41,895) while listings climbed 6.9% ($54,541 → $58,282)—a spread that indicates sellers are asking more than the guarantee market supports.
Case guarantee values rose 3.2% ($30,633 → $31,615) and listings 1.6% ($39,894 → $40,517) on expanded volume (178 vs. 143 valuations).
Caterpillar, the volume leader with 1,203 current-period valuations (up from 873), posted modest gains: guarantee up 0.6% ($41,083 → $41,317) and listings up 1.8% ($53,243 → $54,187). The shallow percentage change on massive volume suggests stable, liquid pricing.
John Deere guarantee values fell 3.2% ($48,832 → $47,261) and listings 1.3% ($62,383 → $61,547) despite volume surging from 393 to 600 valuations. More supply entering the market pressured prices.
Bobcat guarantee values declined 3.5% ($25,031 → $24,144) and listings 4.0% ($32,405 → $31,109) on doubled volume (126 vs. 71 valuations).
Kobelco guarantee values slipped 1.5% ($29,601 → $29,156) and listings 2.5% ($40,680 → $39,656).
Doosan guarantee values fell 2.3% ($44,653 → $43,609) while listings rose 4.2% ($57,776 → $60,222).
JCB guarantee values climbed 11.3% ($19,259 → $21,435) and listings 11.0% ($26,710 → $29,644) on expanded volume (33 vs. 24).
Kawasaki guarantee values dropped 16.4% ($21,094 → $17,639) and listings 15.3% ($27,517 → $23,297) as volume contracted (18 vs. 21 valuations).
Trucks and Vocational Vehicles
Kenworth guarantee values surged 9.9% ($40,976 → $45,016) and listings jumped 13.8% ($55,686 → $63,370) on volume growth from 256 to 269 valuations. This is the strongest truck brand performance.
Freightliner guarantee values fell 6.0% ($21,458 → $20,176) and listings 5.5% ($30,372 → $28,699) despite volume rising from 292 to 359 valuations.
International guarantee values dropped 6.9% ($15,568 → $14,487) and listings 7.0% ($21,613 → $20,104) on modest volume growth (362 vs. 345).
Mack guarantee values declined 3.6% ($29,846 → $28,784) while listings rose 0.8% ($38,256 → $38,547).
Peterbilt guarantee values slipped 0.7% ($35,003 → $34,750) but listings gained 0.9% ($47,317 → $47,760) on volume growth from 298 to 429 valuations.
Western Star collapsed: guarantee values down 42.8% ($52,585 → $30,090) and listings down 39.0% ($64,931 → $39,622). Volume was thin—42 vs. 33 valuations—suggesting distressed or atypical unit mix rather than market-wide repricing.
GMC guarantee values plummeted 19.2% ($8,222 → $6,642) and listings 13.0% ($11,704 → $10,181) on flat volume (145 vs. 142).
Chevrolet guarantee values crashed 21.9% ($13,419 → $10,480) and listings 17.4% ($17,710 → $14,625).
Ford guarantee values fell 3.8% ($11,234 → $10,805) and listings 2.1% ($16,530 → $16,179).
Ram guarantee values dropped 12.6% ($20,827 → $18,206) and listings 6.8% ($28,335 → $26,413).
Hino guarantee values surged 26.0% ($9,228 → $11,631) and listings 37.0% ($12,815 → $17,560) on thin volume (18 vs. 15 valuations).
Isuzu guarantee values fell 9.4% ($14,620 → $13,253) and listings 11.8% ($21,733 → $19,158) on doubled volume (41 vs. 23).
Sterling guarantee values rose 2.7% ($15,570 → $15,991) and listings jumped 11.5% ($21,477 → $23,952).
Autocar guarantee values collapsed 37.7% ($11,586 → $7,214) and listings 32.4% ($15,443 → $10,447) on flat volume (11 valuations).
Lifts and Aerial Equipment
Genie guarantee values rose 6.3% ($7,184 → $7,639) and listings 6.1% ($9,615 → $10,197) on volume growth from 32 to 53 valuations.
JLG guarantee values fell 2.8% ($21,441 → $20,839) while listings rose 6.7% ($28,401 → $30,294).
Skyjack guarantee values gained 9.7% ($5,200 → $5,702) and listings surged 16.4% ($7,411 → $8,625) on volume growth from 12 to 18.
Grove guarantee values rose 5.0% ($15,402 → $16,179) and listings 4.2% ($22,732 → $23,689).
Compaction and Paving
LeeBoy guarantee values jumped 18.5% ($22,082 → $26,169) and listings soared 32.0% ($28,673 → $37,836) on more than doubled volume (53 vs. 22 valuations). This is the largest listing percentage gain across all tracked brands.
Dynapac guarantee values rose 5.8% ($11,670 → $12,352) and listings 11.3% ($14,804 → $16,473) on volume more than doubling (30 vs. 12).
Bomag guarantee values fell 5.9% ($11,759 → $11,068) and listings matched at -5.9% ($14,854 → $13,981).
Hamm guarantee values dropped 16.6% ($35,587 → $29,680) and listings 13.8% ($44,940 → $38,716) on thin volume (22 vs. 10).
Trailers
Fruehauf guarantee values collapsed 46.5% ($7,785 → $4,167) and listings 37.2% ($9,649 → $6,061) on flat volume (38 vs. 35). This represents the steepest decline in the dataset.
Utility guarantee values fell 12.3% ($8,458 → $7,414) and listings 13.2% ($11,540 → $10,012) as volume contracted (42 vs. 58).
Trail King guarantee values dipped 1.5% ($21,042 → $20,716) while listings jumped 10.9% ($27,120 → $30,064) on nearly doubled volume (54 vs. 28).
Wabash National guarantee values rose 4.3% ($3,448 → $3,595) and listings 4.4% ($4,218 → $4,404).
Great Dane guarantee values fell 12.3% ($6,624 → $5,808) and listings 7.3% ($8,275 → $7,675).
Stoughton guarantee values gained 10.5% ($2,626 → $2,901) and listings 11.9% ($3,204 → $3,585).
Dorsey guarantee values dropped 12.8% ($23,550 → $20,530) and listings 10.7% ($33,279 → $29,723) as volume fell (12 vs. 19).
Talbert guarantee values fell 20.4% ($34,387 → $27,382) and listings 18.7% ($45,670 → $37,127) on contracting volume (11 vs. 18).
Cranes and Specialized Equipment
Manitowoc guarantee values fell 13.8% ($102,240 → $88,080) and listings 19.2% ($148,100 → $119,597) on thin volume (19 vs. 17).
Link-Belt guarantee values plummeted 33.7% ($79,515 → $52,713) and listings 28.9% ($106,385 → $75,595).
Liebherr guarantee values surged 28.5% ($58,309 → $74,936) and listings 27.9% ($78,329 → $100,174) on flat volume (18 vs. 14).
Terex guarantee values rose 0.6% ($27,062 → $27,234) and listings 5.0% ($35,982 → $37,781) on volume growth from 68 to 119.
Altec guarantee values fell 15.6% ($17,381 → $14,672) and listings 15.4% ($24,207 → $20,485) on flat volume (24 vs. 25).
Utility and Miscellaneous
Vermeer guarantee values dropped 14.2% ($65,165 → $55,944) and listings 17.3% ($87,729 → $72,533) on volume growth from 20 to 32.
Gradall guarantee values fell 13.2% ($8,837 → $7,672) and listings 11.8% ($11,810 → $10,419).
Wacker Neuson guarantee values declined 18.2% ($18,796 → $15,383) and listings 15.9% ($23,513 → $19,785) on volume growth from 12 to 22.
Kubota guarantee values surged 16.1% ($24,430 → $28,364) and listings 10.4% ($31,311 → $34,579) on volume growth from 54 to 72.
Sandvik guarantee values rose 10.1% ($91,974 → $101,235) and listings 10.0% ($131,513 → $144,659) on volume growth from 20 to 27.
Metso guarantee values gained 7.8% ($103,418 → $111,475) while listings rose only 0.6% ($147,449 → $148,276).
Bell guarantee values rose 13.1% ($92,139 → $104,180) and listings jumped 23.6% ($120,013 → $148,322) on thin volume (11 vs. 13).
What Is Driving These Price Changes
Seasonal demand patterns explain much of the divergence. LeeBoy, Dynapac, and Bomag—paving and compaction specialists—typically see Q2-Q3 demand surges as construction seasons peak. LeeBoy's 32.0% listing jump and Dynapac's 11.3% gain fit this pattern. Hamm's 13.8% decline on thin volume suggests distressed or aged inventory rather than seasonal weakness.
Supply chain and production backlogs continue affecting truck markets. Kenworth's 9.9% guarantee gain and 13.8% listing surge reflect tight Class 8 availability. Conversely, International's 6.9% decline and Freightliner's 6.0% drop suggest these brands faced inventory releases or fleet trade-ins that increased supply.
Atypical volume effects distort several brands. Western Star's 42.8% collapse and Fruehauf's 46.5% implosion occurred on thin valuation bases (42 and 38 units, respectively). A few distressed units—high-hour, damaged, or obsolete models—can skew averages when volume is low. Buyers should verify unit-specific condition before assuming market-wide bargains.
Aging fleet replacement cycles support Volvo, Hyundai, and Liebherr in earth-moving. These brands command premium positioning, and their 24-30% gains suggest fleet managers are prioritizing reliability over price in an uncertain labor market.
Trailer market fragmentation creates sharp contrasts. Stoughton and Wabash National posted modest gains on low-priced units, while Fruehauf, Utility, and Great Dane declined. Refrigerated and dry van segments may be diverging, though the data does not segment by trailer type.
Actionable Advice for Buyers
Immediate opportunities exist in depressed truck and trailer categories:
Fruehauf trailers: At $4,167 guarantee and $6,061 listing averages, these represent the steepest discount in the dataset. Inspect thoroughly—this price level likely reflects aged or damaged units, but functional trailers at 46% below prior pricing warrant attention. Browse Trailers
Western Star trucks: $30,090 guarantee vs. $52,585 prior period demands careful unit review, but the 42.8% decline creates entry points for buyers with in-house maintenance capacity.
International and Freightliner: Both posted 6-7% declines with expanded valuation volume (362 and 359 units, respectively). These are liquid markets with genuine supply increases, not thin-market distortions.
GMC and Chevrolet: Light- and medium-duty trucks at 19-22% below prior pricing suit buyers seeking work trucks without premium branding.
Link-Belt cranes: $52,713 guarantee vs. $79,515 prior period—33.7% down—offers value for buyers with crane inspection expertise.
Avoid or delay purchases in surging categories unless operational needs are critical:
- LeeBoy: 32.0% listing surge suggests peak-season pricing. Wait 60-90 days if possible.
- Volvo and Hyundai earth-moving: 24-31% gains may moderate as supply adjusts.
- Liebherr cranes: 28.5% guarantee surge on thin volume risks reversal.
Actionable Advice for Sellers
List immediately in these appreciating categories:
- Kenworth: 9.9% guarantee gain and 13.8% listing surge with strong volume (269 valuations). This is a seller's market with demonstrated buyer demand.
- Volvo earth-moving: 24.0% guarantee and 26.8% listing gains. List before seasonal demand moderates.
- Kubota: 16.1% guarantee gain with volume expansion (72 vs. 54). Compact equipment remains in demand.
- Genie and Skyjack lifts: 6-16% gains with growing volume. Aerial work platforms face sustained demand from maintenance and logistics construction.
- JCB: 11.3% guarantee and 11.0% listing gains on expanded volume.
Hold or defer listing in declining categories unless cash flow demands immediate action:
- Fruehauf, Western Star, Autocar: Selling into 37-46% declines locks in losses. If possible, refurbish or repurpose rather than sell at current levels.
- International, Freightliner, Mack: Moderate declines with high volume suggest oversupply. Consider Q4 listing when fleet trade-in cycles slow.
- Vermeer, Altec, Manitowoc: Specialized equipment down 13-19% may recover as infrastructure spending flows through.
30-Day Outlook
The market shows no signs of converging to uniform direction. Earth-moving and lift equipment maintains upward momentum from construction seasonality and infrastructure stimulus. Truck markets fragment between premium brands (Kenworth, Peterbilt) holding value and mass-market brands (International, Freightliner, Ford) facing supply pressure.
Trailer markets remain the most volatile segment, with Fruehauf's collapse potentially indicating structural issues in that brand's resale ecosystem rather than broad trailer weakness. Buyers with inspection capacity and flexible specifications will find exceptional value. Sellers holding premium-tier equipment in earth-moving and aerial lifts should list before autumn demand softening.
Valuation volume increases across 35 of 53 brands suggest a more active, liquid market than 30 days prior. This expanded participation supports price discovery but also means individual unit condition and hours will drive deals more than brand averages. Verify undercarriage condition, hour meters, and maintenance records before transacting on any brand showing extreme percentage moves.